England gun for Brazil

The Scenario

We've reached the final straight, where everything finally comes together. Will it end up like Croatia or will England make it to Brazil in 2014? Of course, there is still the possibility of having to face a play off to make it and at this stage, anything can happen. England's group is very finely poised with every team having two fixtures left to play. England lie 1 point ahead of Ukraine and Montenegro and Poland. 6 points would guarantee England top spot and qualification but if they slip up it gets murky. With Poland and Ukraine going head to head on Friday, the best result England can hope for is a draw, as that would leave England almost guaranteed victory should they beat Montenegro. However, should Ukraine win, an England victory would guarantee them at least a play off place but they'd need to beat Poland to secure top spot, as the chances of Ukraine dropping points in their last game against San Marino are roughly the same as an asteroid destroying all life on earth. In any case, 4 points is an absolute minimum. There can be no slip ups. 4 points would basically mean we've got at least a play off spot but anything less and we can probably forget about Brazil.

The Squad

So, the squad. I have no qualms about the goalkeeping department. With Ben Foster injured and Fraser Forster in wicked form for Celtic, it's a no-brainer that he's the immediate cover for Hart. John Ruddy may have made a bad mistake on Sunday for Norwich but he's still as good a choice for a backup keeper as any, although I'd like to see more of the likes of Alex McCarthy and Jack Butland at Premier League level. Defensively, Cole and Baines were always going to be chosen at left back and quite right too. As for right back, with Johnson injured, Kyle Walker is the only natural right back in the squad, though both Jones and Smalling are very versatile and both are more than capable of playing there. As for centre back, with the afore mentioned Smalling and Jones offering options, I'm still a little bit disappointed to see no Joleon Lescott in the side along with Cahill (who's not getting enough games) and Jagielka. Speaking of defenders who should be in there, surely Michael Dawson of Spurs must be hammering on the door with his side's defensive record this season?

As for the midfield, here I think there has clearly been a mistake. We have six central midfielders in the side but only two wingers. This will clearly connect with the striking options, where he's gone for five strikers but clearly is going to play Welbeck on the left. Even if we accept Welbeck as a left winger, that still only leaves 3 wide midfielders in the side, compared to six in the centre. I appreciate that Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlaide-Chamberlain are both injured and Aaron Lennon is nowhere near the set up at the moment. We do have other options, but with Downing requiring a few games back to get into the swing of things, I can appreciate there are few options but options they are nevertheless. Gabby Agbonlahor is in very good form for Villa and would work brilliantly on the wings as part of an attacking three behind a lone striker, or as a wide man in a 4-4-2 formation. Likewise, Wayne Routledge has done enough to earn a call up in my view, and whilst we have a lot of good central midfielders, the team we have does not favour a 4-3-3 with three centre mids. And even if the six central midfielders were worth the call up (they're not) in what possible world does he need exact cover for all three central midfielders, especially when he has both Phil Jones AND James Milner as options. But wait, he has to play Milner out on the right/left because he has no other wingers in the squad, but if he picked another bloody winger we wouldn't have this problem! I understand everyone loves Jack Wilshere blah blah blah but he's not good enough to be in the side and he's not in good form. Likewise both Carrick and Cleverly, especially the latter.

This obsession with picking players from Man Utd (6 in all, at least half of which should not be in the squad) just because they play for United is ridiculous. At least he refrained from picking the abysmally out of form Ashley Young (although I'd pick an out of form overrated winger over an out of form overrated central midfielder at this moment in time). I'd have dropped Cleverly, Smalling and Welbeck from the squad and replaced them with Dawson, Agbonlahor and Routledge, because none of them are playing consistently or well at club level and whilst I can appreciate the argument to keep Welbeck in the squad based on his England form, the same cannot be said of the other two. And yes I know, I'm biased against United but if you're going to base your argument on the fact that United's reserves are better than the rest of the English players in the league (they're not) then this argument loses a lot of credence when United are struggling. Hodgson keeps on picking the same overrated players and not giving others a chance to shine. That said, I'm very pleased to see both Barkley and Townsend in the squad, because they're two young players that I rate very highly indeed and both have a bright future. I don't think either of them will start and maybe that's wise, but I'd like to see them both given a chance. The one area I can't complain about is the strike force (putting Welbeck into the winger bracket for the moment) as Defoe, Rooney, Sturridge and Lambert are probably the four best English strikers in the Prem at the moment.

The Team

So then, who would make my starting 11. Starting in goal. Despite the calls for Fraser Forster to come into the side after a few errors from Joe Hart, I think in such a big game and in such a key position, you have to go with your number 1 and I think that unless Hart makes a big mistake in the Montenegro game, he has to play in both games. Hodgson definitely should give Forster a chance and arguably should have given Forster a chance before now, but it's too late to try and test now, so he's got to stick with Hart, especially after publicly backing him. I expect Hart to play and I think that's the right call. Obviously, Forster will be deputising in case of injury or red card, but otherwise, it'll be Joe all the way.

Our back 4 basically selects itself. With only one natural right back in the side in Kyle Walker, he has to play and likewise at left back, with Ashley Cole injured Baines will definitely start against Montenegro and it'll be interesting to see which way they go against Poland, should Cole be fit to play. It'll all depend on Baines' performance in the Montenegro game, but I still think Cole is a better full back and should be given priority. As for centre back, Chris Smalling hasn't played there in yonks and as excellent as Phil Jones was against Sunderland, he needs a regular run of games at the heart of the United defence and I think now is as good a chance as any to get it. United look very vulnerable with both Vidic and Ferdinand horribly out of form and I think Moyes should give Jones a string of games in that role, which could (although I'm getting ahead of myself) lead to him being first choice centre half in Brazil (assuming Hodgson doesn't fuck it up and we get there). For now, however, it still has to be Cahill and Jagielka, though if I was Gary Cahill, I'd be very worried about the fact that David Luiz seems to be first choice to partner Terry at the heart of the Chelsea defence.

Now into the midfield. For me, Hodgson has to go with a 4-2-3-1, leaving him with just two "holding" central midfielders, even if in actual fact neither of them will do that much holding. The reasoning for this is that the strike force chooses itself, and even if it didn't, it's more than Hodgson's job is worth to drop Wayne Rooney. He never will, he doesn't have the balls but thankfully, for once, I just about think he should start anyway. So with Rooney playing just off the front, that means he obviously can't play Gerrard, Lampard and Wilshere in the centre of midfield. The obvious choice to be dropped is Wilshere, and I really hope he is dropped, although I suspect it may be Lampard who does see the axe. Gerrard is a no brainer, he simply has to play, being captain and the best centre-mid of the bunch. Who plays alongside him? My head says Lampard but my heart says Barkley. Whilst I previously made the argument about not throwing inexperienced players into the cauldron of a crucial international game, I'd really love to see Ross Barkley given a go alongside Gerrard, although his attacking nature may mean England lack balance in that midfield. He has a lot to his game and he's playing as well as anyone at the moment. Cleverly and Carrick are both playing below par and Wilshere has done nothing to impress me, even without being outshone by the likes of Ozil and Ramsey. At risk of sticking with the old guard, Lampard it is. The wide areas are a somewhat easier area to cover. With only Milner, Welbeck and Townsend as options, it seems to me that me and Hodgson are going to disagree on this area. I would go with Milner on the left and Townsend on the right (or the other way round it's not essential) but Hodgson will go with (I think) Milner and Welbeck. The logic is sound enough, with Milner offering a lot of defensive cover which will be required with two marauding full backs in Baines and Walker and Welbeck being in good form for England (against opposition not fit to lace the boots of the likes of Brazil or Argentina but still) but I think Townsend is a stunning young player who ended last season in great nick and has picked up where he left off so far this campaign. One slightly controversial option might be to play Phil Jones out on the right, allowing him and Walker to interchange positions at will and offering more stability on that flank. Against Montenegro this won't be an issue but against the likes of Blaszczykowski (and yes I had to google the spelling for that I couldn't even get close), we can't afford to have both Baines and Welbeck stuck in the opposing half whilst he runs riot in ours.

And finally, up front. I've already said that Rooney has to play in that number 10 role, linking between the midfield and the front. Now I'm a Liverpool fan, that much should be obvious unless you've never read my blog and can't seem to grasp the concept I don't like Man Utd. So my choice for striker should be inherently obvious, even if it wasn't for the fact that he's the top scorer in the league, in the form of his life and basically the best striker in England this year. Daniel Sturridge has to start. End of. Unless he gets injured, I wouldn't play Lambert or Defoe or frankly anyone ahead of him at the moment.

So to clarify, a 4-2-3-1:

Hart

Walker
Cahill
Jagielka
Baines

Gerrard
Lampard

Townsend
Rooney
Milner

Sturridge

With either Lambert or Defoe replacing maybe Milner or Rooney off the bench after 60/70 minutes depending on how the game is going, with Jones also a great versatile option from the bench. I'd pick this side for both games, although obviously both injury and suspension could play a part and also if someone has a shocker against Montenegro (depending on who they are obviously) this could also change. Also, I think Hodgson won't agree with me. I think he won't play Townsend or Lampard, choosing to go with Wilshere and Welbeck instead. It's also possible he'll go with Rooney or Sturridge in a wide role and play Wilshere instead of Milner, which for me would be a huge mistake but still, Hodgson clearly doesn't value any of his wide players.

I'll report back after the Montenegro game, but I think we'll pick up the three points required to leave us on the brink of qualification. Fingers crossed.